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Publications

VIBES: A multiscale modeling approach integrating within-host and between-hosts dynamics in epidemics
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 123 (13) e2523055123
Paulo Cesar Ventura, Yong Dam Jeong, Maria Litvinova, Allisandra G. Kummer, Shingo Iwami, Hongjie Yu, Stefano Merler, Alessandro Vespignani, Keisuke Ejima, and Marco Ajelli
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A vision for estimation of the instantaneous reproductive number
Epidemics (2026) 100885
Chad W. Milando, George G. Vega Yon, Kaitlyn Johnson, Alessandra Urbinati, Guillaume St-Onge, Brennan Klein, Anne Cori, Laura F. White, with the 𝑅𝑡 Collabathon participants
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Epydemix: An open-source Python package for epidemic modeling with integrated approximate Bayesian calibration
PLOS Computational Biology 21, no. 11 (2025): e1013735
Nicolò Gozzi, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Corrado Gioannini, Luca Rossi, Marco Ajelli, Nicola Perra, Alessandro Vespignani
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Comparative evaluation of behavioral epidemic models using COVID-19 data
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122, e2421993122 (2025)
Nicolò Gozzi, Nicola Perra, and Alessandro Vespignani
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Tracking COVID-19 Infections Using Survey Data on Rapid At-Home Tests
JAMA Netw Open. 2024;7(9):e2435442
Mauricio Santillana, PhD; Ata A. Uslu, BE; Tamanna Urmi, BE; Alexi Quintana-Mathe, BS; James N. Druckman, PhD; Katherine Ognyanova, PhD; Matthew Baum, PhD; Roy H. Perlis, MD, MSc; David Lazer, PhD
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Pandemic monitoring with global aircraft-based wastewater surveillance networks
Nature Medicine 31, pages 788–796 (2025)
Guillaume St-Onge, Jessica T. Davis, Laurent Hébert-Dufresne, Antoine Allard, Alessandra Urbinati, Samuel V. Scarpino, Matteo Chinazzi & Alessandro Vespignani
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Epidemiologic Quantities for Monkeypox Virus Clade I from Historical Data with Implications for Current Outbreaks, Democratic Republic of the Congo
Emerg Infect Dis. 2024;30(10):2042-2046.
Valentina Marziano, Giorgio Guzzetta, Ira Longini, and Stefano Merler
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Comparing the effectiveness of adulticide application interventions on mitigating local transmission of dengue virus
Journal of Pest Science (2024)
Allisandra G. Kummer, André B. B. Wilke, Paulo C. Ventura, Chalmers Vasquez, Johana Medina, Isik Unlu, Yaziri Gonzalez, Adquate Mhlanga, Giovanni Benelli, Keisuke Ejima, John-Paul Mutebi & Marco Ajelli
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Copula Conformal Prediction for Multi-step Time Series Forecasting
ICLR 2024 Conference Paper
Sophia Sun, Rose Yu
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Improving Convergence and Generalization Using Parameter Symmetries
ICLR 2024 Conference Paper
Bo Zhao, Robert Gower, Robin Walters, Rose Yu
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Comparative effectiveness of alternative intervals between first and second doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines
Nature Communications volume 15, Article number: 1214 (2024)
Kayoko Shioda, Alexander Breskin, Pravara Harati, Allison T. Chamberlain, Toshiaki Komura, Benjamin A. Lopman & Elizabeth T. Rogawski McQuade
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This project was made possible by cooperative agreement CDC-RFA-FT-23-0069 from the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics. Its contents are solely the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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